A Unified Response to the Al Shabaab Threat in Somalia – FPS Quarterly Brief. April, 2025— The FPS Roundtable
Executive Summary
Al Shabaab’s resurgence in Somalia, marked by recent attacks in Galmudug and Southwest Federal Member States, as well as the failed assassination attempt on President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud on March 18, 2025, underscores the urgent need for a coordinated, all-encompassing national response. The group’s strategy is, among other things, to exploit political uncertainties during Somalia’s electoral transition, which threatens national stability.
President Mohamud’s call for a national conference in May 2025 offers a critical opportunity to forge a unified strategy against Al Shabaab.
This FPS quarterly brief outlines key recommendations for the conference, emphasizing security cooperation, community engagement, international support, and inclusive governance to counter the threat and secure Somalia’s future.
Background
Al Shabaab remains a persistent threat to Somalia’s stability, capitalizing on political transitions to destabilize the government and reclaim lost territories. Recent assaults, including a plot against President Mohamud, highlight the group’s intent to exploit electoral uncertainties in 2025.
The proposed national conference in May 2025, exactly a year before the national elections, aims to unite federal, state, and civil society leaders to address this threat and ensure a stable political transition. A collective, multi-sectoral approach is essential to make a clean departure from the fear of relapse into anarchy and to eventually prevail over Al Shabaab and other criminal outfits.
Policy Recommendations
- Strengthen Security Cooperation
Objective: Enhance coordination between national and regional security forces to counter Al Shabaab effectively.
Actions
– Establish clear protocols for intelligence sharing and joint operations.
– Re-evaluate military strategies to prioritize rapid response and resource allocation in vulnerable areas.
– Increase funding and training for security forces to maintain control over liberated territories.
2. Re-engage Local Communities
- Objective: Empower local leaders and communities to resist Al Shabaab’s influence and sustain territorial gains.
- Actions:
– Strengthen support for community-led initiatives, such as the Maawisley militia, to secure reclaimed areas.
– Promote accountability and local governance to build trust and resilience against extremist ideologies.
– Engage prominent local figures to champion anti-terrorism efforts and foster community cohesion.
3. Mobilize International Support
- Objective: Secure sustained regional and global assistance to bolster Somalia’s fight against Al Shabaab.
- Actions:
– Advocate for a realistic and conditioned military, humanitarian, and developmental aid from international partners.
– Communicate Somalia’s strategic importance to global stakeholders to ensure continued support.
4. Foster Inclusive Governance
- Objective: Build a national consensus through inclusive politics to support security and stability.
- Actions
– Ensure representation of all federal, state, and civil society leaders in the national conference.
– Prioritize trust-building measures to resolve tensions between government entities.
– Develop a shared vision for Somalia’s future that integrates security and governance reforms.
Implementation Considerations
- Timeline: The national conference in May 2025 should produce a roadmap with clear milestones for security and governance reforms by September 2025.
- Stakeholders: Federal and state governments, local leaders, civil society, and international partners must collaborate to ensure accountability and resource alignment.
- Risks: Political divisions or insufficient international commitment could undermine the conference’s outcomes. Proactive diplomacy and inclusive dialogue are critical to mitigate these risks.
Conclusion
The fight against Al Shabaab demands an all-hands-on-deck approach, uniting Somalia’s government, communities, and international allies. The May 2025 national conference provides a pivotal opportunity to forge a national consensus, strengthen security measures, and promote inclusive governance.
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