FPS Editorial, October 2024: The NCC Glitch in Somalia – Sauntering Into the Unknown
Introduction
The National Consultative Council (NCC) in Somalia, established to be a beacon of unity and decision-making among the country’s federal and member state leaders, has recently faced what could be described as a ‘glitch’ in its operational framework. This glitch, characterized by absences, disagreements, and potential constitutional oversteps, throws light on deeper issues within Somalia’s governance structure.
Background
The NCC’s composition and purpose are well-understood, aiming to foster consensus on critical national issues. However, recent events, particularly since January 2023, with Puntland’s withdrawal, signal underlying tensions. Puntland’s decision not to participate stems from allegations of manipulation, reflecting a broader mistrust or dissatisfaction with the federal process.
The situation escalated with Jubaland’s President Ahmed Madobe’s dramatic exit from a NCC meeting, opposing what seemed to be an unconstitutional extension of terms. This move not only highlighted internal dissent but also set a precedent for how member states might react to perceived overreaches of power.
Current Situation
The current situation of the NCC is definitely in a delicate state. Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre’s effort to frame the crisis as manageable by stating that the NCC is still in session, with some members having gone home for consultations, reflects a sincere intention to foster a sense of unity. It’s important to acknowledge, however, that there are differing perspectives among influential figures like Madobe and opposition leaders, who are raising concerns about the federal government’s actions.
Implications for Somalia’s Governance
The NCC’s potential collapse or prolonged dysfunction could lead Somalia into deeper political turmoil. Here’s how:
Security and Stability: Without a unified front, efforts against groups like Al Shabaab might weaken, potentially leading to increased insecurity.
Electoral Delays: The electoral process could suffer, risking democratic legitimacy if not handled transparently and inclusively.
Governance Reforms: Progress on governance could stall, affecting economic recovery, international relations, and public services.
Power Vacuum or Unilateralism: A vacuum or unilateral decisions might lead to further fragmentation or even conflict among regions.
Conclusion: Looking Ahead
The path forward for Somalia, particularly the FGS with international support, involves:
Reengagement and Dialogue: A renewed commitment to dialogue, ensuring all voices, especially those who currently perceive they are sidelined, are heard.
Transparency and Constitutionality: Adhering strictly to constitutional processes and principles, avoiding any actions that might be seen as manipulative or extending terms unlawfully.
International Leverage: Utilizing international partnerships to mediate, ensuring that Somalia’s progress isn’t derailed by internal disputes.
Public Engagement: Keeping the public informed and involved, reducing the likelihood of widespread disillusionment or unrest.
The glitch in the NCC isn’t just a minor technical issue but a reflection of deeper systemic challenges. Addressing these requires not just political will but a genuine commitment to the principles of federalism, democracy, and national unity in Somalia.
The international community, especially those with stakes in Somalia’s stability, must watch closely and act judiciously to prevent a slide into chaos. This period of uncertainty is a test of Somalia’s resilience and the international community’s commitment to its stability and development.
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