A Gambit Goes South: How Did Abiy Reason? FPS Commentary, August 2024
In the wake of the regional uncertainties and upheavals brought about by the January 01, 2024 Memorandum of Understanding between Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali and Somaliland [region of Somalia’]s Muse Bihi Abdi, legitimate questions arise about Abiy Ahmed’s strategic reasoning and foresight.
The unexpected move appears to have dangerously overlooked the intricate geopolitics of the region and the historical complexities that have long defined the relationship between Somalia and Ethiopia, largely contributing to the longstanding security challenges in the region.
One might assume that Abiy Sheikh-Ahmed Ali, an Oromo with at least one Muslim parent, would possess a greater understanding of Somali sentiments towards territorial issues compared to the late Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, whose background diverged from Abiy’s in terms of upbringing, faith and birthplace during childhood.
Despite Zenawi’s 27-year leadership of a strong and most disciplined Ethiopian regime, the thought of annexing even an inch of Somalia territory never crossed Meles’s mind. The late Meles knew full well that such actions, while could be tantalizing, would prove disastrous and counterproductive in the long run.
The lack of such understanding and restraint in Abiy’s recent actions indeed raises concerns about his decision-making process. It leads one to ponder aloud whether his knowledgeable and competent advisors, including individuals like Kamaludin Mustafa, Abdifitah Ibrahim, Redwan Hussein, Mohamud Shiddo, Hussein Kassim, Mustafe Acjar, and others failed to caution him on the potential risks of such a provocative move or if an omniscient Abiy deliberately chose to disregard their mundane counsels.
As a Nobel laureate and holder of a Ph.D., one would expect Abiy to uphold international norms and laws, safeguarding Ethiopia’s regional and international credibility. However, his recent actions seem to diverge from this expectation, leading to speculation about whether he is drawing upon his knowledge and experience or if he is simply driven by delusions of grandeur.
Having served as a former Ethiopian military intelligence officer in the past, Abiy should have been well-versed in maintaining Ethiopia’s image as a regional peacemaker and upholding international order. Yet, his involvement in personally infringing on a sovereign neighbor’s territorial integrity — despite its historical significance and sensitivity — raises questions about his strategic vision and true priorities.
The perplexing nature of Abiy’s actions must prompt a global reflection on their broader implications for regional stability and Ethiopia’s current and future role in peacekeeping missions worldwide.
As the current saga unfolds and Somalia’s beleaguered political and security leadership vacillates between Asmara, Ankara, and Cairo, garnering support against a looming Ethiopian incursion into Somalia, East African security observers and political analysts are expected to paint a clear picture of Abiy’s thought process and the motivations behind his maneuvers, which have the potential to escalate disasters in an already volatile neighborhood.
FPS: Fostering Thoughts; Forging Futures.