Why Djibouti’s Guelleh Holds Key to Horn Stability
At a Glance:
Today, Ismail Omar Guelleh, the President of Djibouti, holds more sway over the stability of the Horn of Africa region than any other leader in the neighborhood. This influence is the result of history, geography, ethnic make-up, relations and dynamics, and various multifaceted connections as well as strategic alliances he has personally cultivated over the years:
- Strategic Location:
Djibouti’s pivotal location at the crossroads of Africa, the Middle East, and Asia positions President Guelleh to impact international trade and military operations, exerting influence over regional stability.
- Political Influence:
As a key figure in regional diplomacy, Guelleh maintains close relationships with the President of the Somali Republic, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, a disproportionate number of the Somalia economic, cultural, and political elite, and key prominent clan leaders, priming him to be able to resolve – or exacerbate – conflicts in the Horn of Africa.
- Clan Dynamics and Interconnection:
President Guelleh’s intricate network of clan affiliations, including his own Issa clan family that straddles across Somalia, Djibouti, and Ethiopia, strengthens his ties to various Somali clans. Guelle’s Issa clan is an important part of the Dir clan grouping within the Somalia 4.5 power-sharing formula, making him indisputably the most notable living Dir personality.
His marriage into the influential Habar Awal clan is an icing on the cake further bolstering his standing within the Issak community, the Hargeysa-based central nerve of the secessionist agenda.
- Special Rapport with Ethiopia’s Abiy Ahmed:
Guelleh’s close personal friendship with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed dates back to the latter’s early ascension to the Ethiopian top seat. Rumors (FPS has not been able to verify) have persisted that it was none other than Guelleh, an Afaan Oromo-speaking fellow Cushitic leader, who in 2018 convinced Abiy Ahmed’s Oromo competitors to drop out of the precariously close race and support Abiy for the first premiership in Ethiopia’s long history of non-Oromo rulers.
- Regional Security Cooperation:
Djibouti’s participation in the AU peacekeeping mission in Somalia, with Guelleh’s troops contributing and deployed in Somalia, underscores his indispensability to regional security cooperation and peacekeeping efforts in the neighborhood.
- Selective and Timely Engagements with Relevant Local Leaders:
Djibouti’s recent invitation of the Dhulbahante SSC Khaatumo leader, Mr. Abdikadir Firdhiye, to its capital Djibouti, and previously allowing the Gadabursi-Issa Awdal State Movement’s rendezvousing in its backyard, has positioned Guelleh uniquely to mediate disputes and influence power shifts within the immediate neighborhood. This positioning is crucial as it pertains to Musa Bihi’s secessionist Somaliland administration and the Federal Government of Somalia’s respective relevances in the regions under the sphere and representation of SSC Khaatumo and Awdal State Movement – Dhulbahante, Gadabursi, and Issa.
The Nutshell:
In conclusion, Djibouti’s strategic location, the region’s ethnic make-up and tendencies, as well as Ismail Omar Guelleh’s long history of bold initiatives like the Arta Conference in 2000, his intricate and massive network of clan affiliations, his recent skillfully choreographed overtures to relevant local players as well as his personal rapport across the board position the Djiboutian strongman as a uniquely indispensable figure in calming – or fueling – the prevailing tension and potentially averting – or perpetuating – a renewed upheaval in the wake of the controversial January 1, 2024 Somaliland-Ethiopia MoU.
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